Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA

Michael P. Ward, Linda D Highfield, Pailin Vongseng, M. Graeme Garner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

37 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (∼13-21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (∼5-34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only ∼1-2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting ∼8-9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)286-297
Number of pages12
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume88
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Foot-and-Mouth Disease
foot-and-mouth disease
Livestock
livestock
herds
Disease Outbreaks
feedlots
Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus
Decision Making
Industry
Vaccines
beef
Foot-and-mouth disease virus
livestock and meat industry
decision making
simulation models
disease control
Red Meat
photoperiod
planning

Keywords

  • Feedlot
  • Foot-and-mouth disease
  • Simulation modeling
  • Texas

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Food Animals

Cite this

Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA. / Ward, Michael P.; Highfield, Linda D; Vongseng, Pailin; Graeme Garner, M.

In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 88, No. 4, 01.04.2009, p. 286-297.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ward, Michael P. ; Highfield, Linda D ; Vongseng, Pailin ; Graeme Garner, M. / Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA. In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2009 ; Vol. 88, No. 4. pp. 286-297.
@article{d99cd5e68702498198eac20ee3c9f65d,
title = "Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA",
abstract = "We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (∼13-21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (∼5-34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only ∼1-2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting ∼8-9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.",
keywords = "Feedlot, Foot-and-mouth disease, Simulation modeling, Texas",
author = "Ward, {Michael P.} and Highfield, {Linda D} and Pailin Vongseng and {Graeme Garner}, M.",
year = "2009",
month = "4",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.12.006",
language = "English",
volume = "88",
pages = "286--297",
journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",
issn = "0167-5877",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA

AU - Ward, Michael P.

AU - Highfield, Linda D

AU - Vongseng, Pailin

AU - Graeme Garner, M.

PY - 2009/4/1

Y1 - 2009/4/1

N2 - We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (∼13-21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (∼5-34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only ∼1-2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting ∼8-9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.

AB - We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (∼13-21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (∼5-34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only ∼1-2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting ∼8-9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.

KW - Feedlot

KW - Foot-and-mouth disease

KW - Simulation modeling

KW - Texas

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=58949096474&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=58949096474&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.12.006

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.12.006

M3 - Article

VL - 88

SP - 286

EP - 297

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

T2 - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

IS - 4

ER -